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Oscars Predictions: Adapted Screenplay – Could Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach Still Win If the Academy Rejects Its Original Bid for ‘Barbie?’

BARBIE, Issa Rae, 2023. © Warner Bros. / Courtesy Everett Collection
©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2023 Oscars Predictions:
Best Adapted Screenplay

OPPENHEIMER, Cillian Murphy as J. Robert Oppenheimer, 2023. © Universal Pictures / Courtesy Everett Collection ©Universal/Courtesy Everett Collection

Weekly Commentary (Updated Nov. 16, 2023): Warner Bros. confirming to Variety its plans to submit “Barbie” for best original screenplay, coming after the WGA designation as an original script. However, after multiple conversations with industry writers, professionals and sources, I have an “Oscar hunch” (if that’s a thing?) Greta Gerwig’s meta-comedy might get moved to adapted screenplay. While we won’t know the official ruling until nom voting opens in January (and I must stress, there’s no official decisions on its category, nor is it known it’s been “flagged” by the Writers Branch committee), it seems inevitable. As a result, I’m predicting to be nominated (and win) adapted screenplay (for the moment).

With Ava DuVernay’s “Origin” also going the original route (along with “The Bikeriders”), does that open it up for an indie film like “All of Us Strangers?” The Andrew Haigh-written and directed supernatural drama landed the most noms from the Gotham Awards. That could give it some steam as it ventures into these later months of awards season. With Searchlight Pictures having both “Strangers” and “Poor Things” by scribe Tony McNamara, they’re looking for both movies to get into this race.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

MGM’s “American Fiction” from debut director Cord Jefferson is surging. Jefferson’s script, based on the novel “Erasure” by Percival Everett, is a stellar and entertaining script that could garner love for its writing (and acting for Jeffrey Wright). Jefferson has been beloved in the TV world, winning a WGA prize for penning episodes of “Succession” in 2020, the same year he won an Emmy for writing the “Watchmen” episode “This Extraordinary Being,” which he shared with Damon Lindelof. A movie about the industry, that plays like it isn’t about the industry, is something the Academy will gobble up.

The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 15, 2023. The preliminary shortlist for eight categories is from Dec. 14-18, with the results announcement dropping on Dec. 21. The Oscar nomination period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominees named on Jan. 23.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.

Listed writer credits are not final. The Academy ultimately determines the official nominees.

And the Predicted Nominees Are:

  1. “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach **
  2. “American Fiction” (MGM) — Cord Jefferson (based on “Erasure” by Percival Everett)
  3. “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) — Tony McNamara (based on the book by Alasdair Gray)
  4. “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) — Christopher Nolan (based on the book by Kai Bird, Martin J. Sherwin)
  5. “The Zone of Interest” (A24) — Jonathan Glazer (based on “The Zone of Interest” by Martin Amis)

Next in Line

  1. “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) — Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese (based on the book by David Grann)
  2. “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures) — Andrew Haigh (based on the book by Taichi Yamada)
  3. “The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio) — Tran Anh Hung (based on the novel by Marcel Rouffe)
  4. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures) — Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Dave Callaham (based on the character created by Marvel Comics)
  5. “Ferrari” (Neon) — Troy Kennedy Martin (based on the novel by Brock Yates)

Other Top-Tier Possibilities

  1. “BlackBerry” (IFC Films) — Matt Johnson, Matthew Miller (based on the book by Jacquie McNish, Sean Silcoff)
  2. “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate) — Kelly Fremon Craig (based on the novel by Judy Blume)
  3. “Society of the Snow” (Netflix) — J. A. Bayona, Bernat Vilaplana, Jaime Marques, Nicolás Casariego
  4. “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) — Marcus Gardley (based on the novel by Alice Walker and the musical by Brenda Russell, Allee Willis, Stephen Bray, Marsha Norman)
  5. “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures) — Rebecca Angelo, Lauren Schuker Blum (based on the book by Ben Mezrich)
  6. “The Boys in the Boat” (MGM) — Mark L. Smith (based on the book by Daniel James Brown)
  7. “Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Mark St. Germain (based on the play by Germain)
  8. “The Burial” (Amazon Studios) — Doug Wright, Maggie Betts (based on the book by Jonathan Harr)
  9. “Priscilla” (A24) — Sofia Coppola (based on the book by Priscilla Presley, Sandra Harmon)
  10. “Nyad” (Netflix) — Julia Cox (based on “Find a Way” by Diana Nyad)

Also In Contention

  1. “Origin” (Neon) — Ava DuVernay (based on the book by Isabel Wilkerson) **
  2. “The Killer” (Netflix) — Andrew Kevin Walker (based on graphic novel by Alexis Nolent, Luc Jacamon)
  3. “Eileen” (Neon) — Ottessa Moshfegh, Luke Goebel (based on the novel by Moshfegh)
  4. “How to Blow Up a Pipeline” (Neon) — Ariela Barer, Jordan Sjol, Daniel Goldhaber (based on the novel by Andreas Malm)
  5. “Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight Pictures) — Taika Waititi, Iain Morris (based on the book by Mike Brett, Steve Jamison)
  6. “Creed III” (MGM) — Ryan Coogler, Keenan Coogler, Zach Baylin (based on characters by Sylvester Stallone)
  7. “Wonka” (Warner Bros.) — Simon Farnaby, Paul King (based on characters created by Roald Dahl)
  8. “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) — Sarah Conradt (based on the novels “Mothers’ Instincts” by Giordano Gederlini and Olivier Masset-Depasse and “Behind the Hatred” by Barbara Abel)
  9. “Foe” (Amazon Studios) — Iain Reid, Garth Davis (based on the book by Reid)
  10. “The Marvels” (Marvel Studios) — Nia DaCosta, Megan McDonnell, Elissa Karasik (based on the characters by Marvel Comics)

All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**

  • “A Haunting in Venice” (20th Century Studios) — Michael Green
  • “Priscilla” (A24) — Sofia Coppola
  • “When You Finish Saving the World” (A24) — Jesse Eisenberg
  • “The Zone of Interest” (A24) — Jonathan Glazer
  • “The Burial” (Amazon Studios) — Doug Wright, Maggie Betts
  • “Foe” (Amazon Studios) — Iain Reid, Garth Davis
  • “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) — Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese
  • “Across the River and Into the Trees” (Bleecker Street) — Peter Flannery
  • “Trolls Band Together” (DreamWorks Animation) — Jonathan Aibel, Glenn Berger, Elizabeth Tippet
  • “My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3” (Focus Features) — Nia Vardalos
  • “BlackBerry” (IFC Films) — Matt Johnson, Matthew Miller
  • “The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio) — Tran Anh Hung
  • “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Illumination) — Matthew Fogel
  • “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate) — Kelly Fremon Craig
  • “The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” (Lionsgate) — Michael Lesslie, Michael Arndt
  • “John Wick Chapter 4” (Lionsgate) — Shay Hatten, Michael Finch
  • “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quanumania” (Marvel Studios) — Jeff Loveness
  • “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios) — James Gunn
  • “The Marvels” (Marvel Studios) — Nia DaCosta, Megan McDonnell, Elissa Karasik
  • “American Fiction” (MGM) — Cord Jefferson
  • “The Boys in the Boat” (MGM) — Mark L. Smith
  • “Creed III” (MGM) — Ryan Coogler, Keenan Coogler, Zach Baylin
  • “Eileen” (Neon) — Ottessa Moshfegh, Luke Goebel
  • “How to Blow Up a Pipeline” (Neon) — Ariela Barer, Jordan Sjol, Daniel Goldhaber
  • “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) — Sarah Conradt
  • “Origin” (Neon) — Ava DuVernay (based on the book by Isabel Wilkerson) **
  • “Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget” (Netflix) — Karey Kirkpatrick, John O’Farrell, Rachel Tunnard
  • “The Killer” (Netflix) — Andrew Kevin Walker
  • “Leave the World Behind” (Netflix) — Sam Esmail
  • “Nimona” (Netflix) — Robert L. Baird, Lloyd Taylor
  • “Nyad” (Netflix) — Julia Cox
  • “Pain Hustlers” (Netflix) — Wells Tower
  • “Society of the Snow” (Netflix) — J. A. Bayona, Bernat Vilaplana, Jaime Marques, Nicolás Casariego
  • “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures) — Christopher McQuarrie, Erik Jendresen
  • “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem” (Paramount Pictures) — Seth Rogen, Evan Goldberg, Jeff Rowe, Dan Hernandez, Benji Samit, Brendon O’Brien
  • “Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight Pictures) — Taika Waititi **
  • “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures) — Marielle Heller **
  • “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) — Tony McNamara
  • “Theater Camp” (Searchlight Pictures) — Noah Galvin, Molly Gordon, Nick Lieberman, Ben Platt
  • “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures) — Rebecca Angelo, Lauren Schuker Blum
  • “The Equalizer 3” (Sony Pictures) — Richard Wenk
  • “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures) — Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Dave Callaham
  • “Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Mark St. Germain
  • “Ferrari” (Neon) — Troy Kennedy Martin
  • “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) — Christopher Nolan
  • “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach **
  • “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.) — Gareth Dunnet-Alcocer
  • “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) — Marcus Gardley
  • “Wonka” (Warner Bros.) — Simon Farnaby, Paul King
  • “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures) — David Magee

2022 category winner: “Women Talking” (MGM) — Sarah Polley (based on the novel by Miriam Toews)

** indicates an unconfirmed release date in 2023 or could campaign in the lead or supporting categories. All release dates are subject to change.

Oscars Predictions Categories

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

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