Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best Supporting Actress
Weekly Commentary (Updated Nov. 16, 2023): America Ferrera is having a notable moment with the success of Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie,” in which she has a strong shot at garnering a supporting actress nom. I initially wondered if “Dumb Money” could help or hurt her recognition within the Academy. It definitely will help. She again breaks your heart as a single mom and nurse who is aching for a big break. This comeback is significant as one of the leading candidates to represent Latinos in the acting categories.
Da’Vine Joy Randolph is incredibly moving in Alexander Payne’s dramedy “The Holdovers” alongside Paul Giamatti and Dominic Sessa. On a recent episode of the Variety Awards Circuit Podcast, she spoke beautifully about the role of Mary Lamb, a cafeteria worker who, while dealing with the children left at an elite boarding school during the holiday break, is grieving the loss of her son. If that’s any indication about how she’ll be on the circuit, she’ll definitely be a contender.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 15, 2023. The preliminary shortlist for eight categories is from Dec. 14-18, with the results announcement dropping on Dec. 21. The Oscar nomination period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominees named on Jan. 23.
***The list below is not final and will be updated throughout the awards season.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph — “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
- Emily Blunt — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
- Julianne Moore — “May December” (Netflix)
- Sandra Hüller — “The Zone of Interest” (A24)
- America Ferrera — “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Next in Line
- Jodie Foster – “Nyad” (Netflix)
- Penélope Cruz — “Ferrari” (Neon)
- Rosamund Pike — “Saltburn” (Amazon Studios)
- Danielle Brooks – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- Juliette Binoche — “The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studios)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- Taraji P. Henson – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- Viola Davis — “Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Cara Jade Myers – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
- Leslie Uggams — “American Fiction” (MGM)
- Erika Alexander — “American Fiction” (MGM)
- Rachel McAdams — “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
- Claire Foy – “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Vanessa Kirby — “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
- Rhea Perlman – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- Florence Pugh — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Also In Contention
- Patricia Clarkson – “Monica” (IFC Films)
- Scarlett Johansson — “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
- Maura Tierney — “The Iron Claw” (A24)
- Lily James — “The Iron Claw” (A24)
- Niecy Nash-Betts — “Origin” (Neon)
- America Ferrera — “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
- Issa Rae — “American Fiction” (MGM)
- Maya Hawke — “Maestro” (Netflix)
- Annie Gonzalez – “Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
- Julianne Nicholson — “Dream Scenario” (A24)
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**
- Camille Cottin — “A Haunting in Venice” (20th Century Studios)
- Tina Fey — “A Haunting in Venice” (20th Century Studios)
- Emma Laird — “A Haunting in Venice” (20th Century Studios)
- Kelly Reilly — “A Haunting in Venice” (20th Century Studios)
- Michelle Yeoh — “A Haunting in Venice” (20th Century Studios)
- Patti LuPone – “Beau is Afraid” (A24)
- Parker Posey – “Beau is Afraid” (A24)
- Amy Ryan – “Beau is Afraid” (A24)
- Julianne Nicholson — “Dream Scenario” (A24)
- Lily James – “The Iron Claw” (A24)
- Maura Tierney — “The Iron Claw” (A24)
- Moon Seung-ah – “Past Lives” (A24)
- Dagmara Dominczyk – “Priscilla” (A24)
- Hong Chau – “Showing Up” (A24)
- Julianne Moore – “When You Finish Saving the World” (A24)
- Sandra Hüller – “The Zone of Interest” (A24)
- Viola Davis – “Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Jurnee Smollett – “The Burial” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Roberta Colindrez — “Cassandro” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Perla De La Rosa — “Cassandro” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Molly Shannon — “A Good Person” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Celeste O’Connor — “A Good Person” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Zoe Lister-Jones — “A Good Person” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Tiffany Haddish — “Landscape with Invisible Hand” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Brooklynn MacKinzie — “Landscape with Invisible Hand” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Sarayu Blue — “A Million Miles Away” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Veronica Falcón — “A Million Miles Away” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Allison Oliver — “Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Rosamund Pike – “Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Annie Murphy – “Fingernails” (Apple Original Films)
- Janae Collins – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
- Tantoo Cardinal – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
- Lily Gladstone – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) **
- Cara Jade Myers – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
- Vanessa Kirby – “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
- Camille Cottin — “Golda” (Bleecker Street)
- Hong Chau – “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
- Hope Davis – “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
- Grace Edwards – “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
- Maya Hawke – “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
- Scarlett Johansson – “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
- Sophia Lillis – “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
- Margot Robbie – “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
- Tilda Swinton – “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph – “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
- Patricia Clarkson – “Monica” (IFC Films)
- Juliette Binoche — “The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio)
- Annie Gonzalez – “Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
- Kathy Bates – “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
- Rachel McAdams – “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
- Stephanie Hsu – “Joy Ride” (Lionsgate)
- Zoe Saldaña — “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios)
- Karen Gillan — “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios)
- Pom Klementieff — “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios)
- Linda Cardellini — “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios)
- Teyonah Parris – “The Marvels” (Marvel Studios)
- Issa Rae – “American Fiction” (MGM)
- Tracee Ellis Ross – “American Fiction” (MGM)
- Emily Beecham — “Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant” (MGM)
- Tessa Thompson – “Creed III” (MGM)
- Ruby Cruz — — “Bottoms” (MGM/Orion)
- Havana Rose Liu — “Bottoms” (MGM/Orion)
- Kaia Gerber — “Bottoms” (MGM/Orion)
- Courtney Henggeler — “The Boys in the Boat” (MGM)
- Hadley Robinson — “The Boys in the Boat” (MGM)
- Anne Hathaway – “Eileen” (Neon) **
- Isabella Rossellini – “La Chimera” (Neon)
- Jessica Chastain – “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) **
- Anne Hathaway – “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) **
- Niecy Nash-Betts — “Origin” (Neon)
- Audra McDonald — “Origin” (Neon)
- Tilda Swinton – “The Killer” (Netflix)
- Myha’la Herrold – “Leave the World Behind” (Netflix)
- Maya Hawke – “Maestro” (Netflix)
- Carey Mulligan – “Maestro” (Netflix) **
- Julianne Moore – “May December” (Netflix)
- Jodie Foster – “Nyad” (Netflix)
- Audra McDonald – “Rustin” (Netflix)
- CCH Pounder – “Rustin” (Netflix)
- Sophia Lillis — “Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves” (Paramount Pictures)
- Hayley Atwell — “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures)
- Rebecca Ferguson — “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures)
- Vanessa Kirby — “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures)
- Pom Klementieff — “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures)
- Ronkẹ Adékoluẹjo — “Chevalier” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Lucy Boynton — “Chevalier” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Minnie Driver — “Chevalier” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Rachel House — “Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Kaimana — “Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Elisabeth Moss — “Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Suzy Bemba — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Kathryn Hunter – “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Vicki Pepperdine — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Margaret Qualley – “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Hanna Schygulla — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Claire Foy – “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
- America Ferrera – “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
- Shailene Woodley – “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
- Niousha Noor – “The Persian Version” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Penélope Cruz – “Ferrari” (Neon)
- Emily Blunt – “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
- Florence Pugh – “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
- America Ferrera – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- Ariana Greenblatt – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- Kate McKinnon – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- Rhea Perlman – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- Issa Rae – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- Adriana Barraza – “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)
- Belissa Escobedo – “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)
- Susan Sarandon – “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)
- Bruna Marquezine – “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)
- Halle Bailey – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- Danielle Brooks – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- Taraji P. Henson – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- H.E.R. – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- Olivia Colman — “Wonka” (Warner Bros.)
- Sally Hawkins — “Wonka” (Warner Bros.)
- Calah Lane — “Wonka” (Warner Bros.)
- Natasha Rothwell — “Wonka” (Warner Bros.)
- Melissa McCarthy – “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures)
** This official list is incomplete, with all release dates not yet confirmed and subject to change.
2022 category winner: Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
Oscars Predictions Categories
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.