Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best Achievement in Directing
Weekly Commentary (Updated Nov. 16, 2023): Could A24 wrestle another Oscar contender into the mix while already having two strong candidates with “Past Lives” and “The Zone of Interest”?
Screening in L.A. after its world premiere in Dallas, it’s one of the final films to drop in the awards conversation, it has the emotional resonance and impact of heavy-handed and depressing dramas such as “Manchester by the Sea,” which won two Oscars for actor Casey Affleck and original screenplay for Kenneth Lonergan.
“Iron Claw” will need to overcome the natural human apprehension of not wanting to see authentic stories of death and anguish, especially in a time where there seems to be so much around us. Helmed by the man who brought us “Martha Marcy May Marlene” with Elizabeth Olsen, Durkin’s way with his actors is among some of the best in the business, and he could appeal to the Directors Branch (perhaps in a lone directing nom sort of fashion?)
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 15, 2023. The preliminary shortlist for eight categories is from Dec. 14-18, with the results announcement dropping on Dec. 21. The Oscar nomination period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominees named on Jan. 23.
The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.
***The list below is not final and will be updated throughout the awards season.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- Christopher Nolan — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
- Cord Jefferson — “American Fiction” (MGM)
- Greta Gerwig — “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- Martin Scorsese — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
- Jonathan Glazer — “The Zone of Interest” (A24)
Next in Line
- Yorgos Lanthimos — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Alexander Payne — “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
- Ava DuVernay — “Origin” (Neon)
- Sean Durkin — “The Iron Claw” (A24)
- Michael Mann — “Ferrari” (Neon)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- Bradley Cooper — “Maestro” (Netflix)
- Todd Haynes — “May December” (Netflix)
- Celine Song — “Past Lives” (A24)
- Trần Anh Hùng — “The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio)
- Ben Affleck — “Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Andrew Haigh — “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Blitz Bazawule — “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- Ridley Scott — “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
- Sofia Coppola — “Priscilla” (A24)
- Emerald Fennell — “Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Also In Contention
- David Fincher — “The Killer” (Netflix)
- Justine Triet — “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
- George C. Wolfe — “Rustin” (Netflix)
- Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson — “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
- Craig Gillespie — “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
- Matt Johnson — “BlackBerry” (IFC Films)
- Kelly Fremon Craig — “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
- Michel Franco — “Memory” (Ketchup Entertainment)
- Ilker Çatak — “The Teachers Lounge” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Christos Nikou – “Fingernails” (Apple Original Films)
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**
- Kenneth Branagh – “A Haunting in Venice” (20th Century Studios)
- Ari Aster – “Beau is Afraid” (A24)
- Sean Durkin – “The Iron Claw” (A24)
- Celine Song – “Past Lives” (A24)
- Sofia Coppola – “Priscilla” (A24)
- Kelly Reichardt – “Showing Up” (A24)
- Jesse Eisenberg — “When You Finish Saving the World” (A24)
- Nicole Holofcener – “You Hurt My Feelings” (A24)
- Jonathan Glazer – “The Zone of Interest” (A24)
- Ben Affleck – “Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Maggie Betts – “The Burial” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Roger Ross Williams – “Cassandro” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Garth Davis – “Foe” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Alejandra Márquez Abella — “A Million Miles Away” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Emerald Fennell – “Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Christos Nikou – “Fingernails” (Apple Original Films)
- John Carney – “Flora and Son” (Apple Original Films)
- Martin Scorsese – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
- Ridley Scott – “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
- Guy Nattiv – “Golda” (Bleecker Street)
- Wes Anderson – “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
- Alexander Payne – “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
- A.V. Rockwell – “A Thousand and One” (Focus Features)
- Matt Johnson – “BlackBerry” (IFC Films)
- Andrea Pallaoro – “Monica” (IFC Films)
- Trần Anh Hùng – “The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio)
- Eva Longoria — “Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
- Ryûsuke Hamaguchi — “Evil Does Not Exist” (Janus Films)
- Michel Franco — “Memory” (Ketchup Entertainment)
- Aristotle Torres — “Story Ave” (Kino Lorber)
- Kelly Fremon Craig — “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
- Francis Lawrence – “The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” (Lionsgate)
- Adele Lim – “Joy Ride” (Lionsgate)
- Lisa Cortes – “Little Richard: I Am Everything” (Magnolia Pictures)
- Paul Schrader – “Master Gardener” (Magnolia Pictures)
- James Gunn – “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios)
- Nia DaCosta – “The Marvels” (Marvel Studios)
- Cord Jefferson – “American Fiction” (MGM)
- George Clooney – “The Boys in the Boat” (MGM)
- Michael B. Jordan – “Creed III” (MGM)
- Guy Ritchie — “Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant” (MGM)
- Emma Seligman — “Bottoms” (MGM/Orion)
- Zach Braff — “A Good Person” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
- Christopher Zalla — “Radical” (Miercoles Entertainment)
- Justin Triet – “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
- William Oldroyd – “Eileen” (Neon)
- Daniel Goldhaber – “How to Blow Up a Pipeline” (Neon)
- Alice Rochwacher – “La Chimera” (Neon)
- Wim Wenders — “Perfect Days” (Neon)
- Matthew Heineman — “American Symphony” (Netflix)
- Pablo Larrain – “El Conde” (Netflix)
- Chloe Dumont – “Fair Play” (Netflix)
- David Fincher – “The Killer” (Netflix)
- Sam Esmail – “Leave the World Behind” (Netflix)
- Todd Haynes – “May December” (Netflix)
- Bradley Cooper – “Maestro” (Netflix)
- Jimmy Chin, Chai Vasarhelyi — “Nyad” (Netflix)
- David Yates — “Pain Hustlers” (Netflix)
- Zack Snyder – “Rebel Moon” (Netflix)
- George C. Wolfe – “Rustin” (Netflix)
- J.A. Bayona – “Society of the Snow” (Netflix)
- Ava DuVernay – “Origin” (Neon)
- Jonathan Goldstein and John Francis Daley — “Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves” (Paramount Pictures)
- Christopher McQuarrie — “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures)
- Jeff Rowe — “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem” (Paramount Pictures)
- Peter Sohn – “Elemental” (Pixar)
- Ray Romano – “Somewhere in Queens” (Roadside Attractions)
- Andrew Haigh – “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Taika Waititi – “Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Yorgos Lanthimos – “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Craig Gillespie – “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
- Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson – “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
- Matt Brown – “Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Ilker Çatak – “The Teachers Lounge” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Michael Mann – “Ferrari” (Neon)
- Christopher Nolan – “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
- Rebecca Miller – “She Came to Me” (Vertical Entertainment)
- Greta Gerwig – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- Ángel Manuel Soto – “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)
- Blitz Bazawule – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- Paul King – “Wonka” (Warner Bros.)
- Rob Marshall – “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- Chris Buck, Fawn Veerasunthorn – “Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)
2022 category winner: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
** indicates an unconfirmed release date in 2023 or could campaign in the lead or supporting categories. All release dates are subject to change.
Oscars Predictions Categories
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.